Working Notes on Agent Systems/Brad Zhang

@teach_fireworks / X longform

SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12 this time is much like a physical version of an IPO road show.

SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12 this time is much like a physical version of an IPO road show. The latest V3 starship took off from Starbase, completed a flight of about one hour, r...

May 23, 2026 · 3 min read

SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12 this time is much like a physical version of an IPO road show.
Figure 1 / source image

SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12 this time is much like a physical version of an IPO road show.

The latest V3 starship took off from Starbase, completed a flight of about one hour, released 20 simulated Starlink satellites, and finally arrived at the target area in the Indian Ocean.

It's not perfect yet, the engine is in condition, and recycling hasn't been done, but the point is: this "reusable super-heavy capacity" story has been pushed a notch further.

The third-generation Starship V3 takes off for the first time.

This is SpaceX’s largest and most powerful version of Starship currently, about 124 meters high.

Compared with the previous generation, it is not simply lengthened, but the entire system is being upgraded: stronger structure, greater propellant delivery capacity, stronger computing and navigation capabilities, and will also serve docking, lunar missions and deep space missions in the future.

Mission completion significantly improved.

Starship took off from Starbase in Texas and flew for about an hour, spanning half the world, and finally arrived at the target area in the Indian Ocean.

Although there were still engine problems during the flight and a fire was not avoided after entering the sea at the end of the flight, there was no out-of-control explosion this time and the critical path was cleared.

20 simulated Starlink satellites released This is very important.

The commercial value of Starship is to first reduce the launch costs of Starlink.

Being able to put next-generation Starlink satellites into orbit at scale and at low cost is the core of SpaceX's cash flow story.

It validates a production system, not just a rocket The Falcon 9 has demonstrated that rocket recyclability can change launch economics.

What Starship wants to prove is another, more radical thing: super-heavy transport capacity can also be high-frequency, low-cost, and reusable.

If this road goes through, what SpaceX is selling is "infrastructure to get into orbit." This also explains why this launch and IPO have very different meanings when viewed together.

According to public reports, SpaceX's IPO may be one of the largest in history, with the potential to raise approximately $75 billion and a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, and is planned to trade on Nasdaq as SPCX.

This valuation buys a set of vertically integrated space platform models: Falcon 9 provides mature launch cash flow Starlink provides global satellite Internet subscription income Starship is responsible for continuing to drive down unit transportation costs AI / xAI / Grok / future space computing power, providing greater long-term imagination The moon, Mars, point-to-point transportation, and orbital manufacturing are long-term options.

So SpaceX’s IPO is not essentially a “rocket company going public.” It’s more like three stories packaged for listing: orbital logistics company + global communications operator + space AI infrastructure company.

Starship is the lever in this model.

If it can't be reused stably, SpaceX's forward valuation will be discounted.

If it really achieves high-frequency, low-cost, and heavy-load loading into orbit, then Starlink, lunar missions, orbital data centers, and deep space transportation will all be repriced.

That's the point of this launch: It gives the IPO narrative a shot of real-world fuel.

What SpaceX wants to sell to the market is not just a rocket, it is an operating system that extends the earth’s economy into orbit.

When it comes to telling stories, it has to be Boss Ma.

#SpaceX #Starship #IPO #Starlink #SPCX

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